Optimal schedule for monitoring a plant incursion when detection and treatment success vary over time

Abstract

Management of an invasive plant species can be viewed as two separate and successive processes. The first, survey, aims to find infested areas and remove individuals. The second, monitoring, consists of repeated visits to these areas in order to prevent possible re-emergence. As detection probability may vary over time, the timing and number of monitoring visits can dramatically impact monitoring efficacy. We explore the optimal timing and number of monitoring visits, by focusing on one infested site. Our decision-analysis framework defines an optimal monitoring schedule which accounts for a time-dependent probability of detection, based on the presence/absence of a flower. We use this frame..